However, this trend ended in the mid-2000s and the annual frequency of major armed conflicts has stabilized at around 35 in recent years, with most concentrated in Asia and Africa. The number of ongoing armed conflicts in the world has declined steadily through the 1990s and early 2000s, with a 40 % reduction from peak years shortly after the end of the Cold War. The results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes in P. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. The number of countries with decreased P. ResultsĪnalyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. In this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. The absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission.
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